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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

55-38  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Jul 11 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

52-41  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Carlos Rodon
STARTING PITCHER

Carlos Rodon

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.29 -- 1.0 1
Carlos Rodon None-None 3.08 -- 8.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
2.29 Ldr ERA 3.08
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 8.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
53%
📊
YANKEES
47%
CUBS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

40.6%

Yankees Cover

59.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.4%

CHC By 3-4 runs

10.8%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.53
CHICAGO
6.48
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Cubs (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 NYY @ CHC 2 - 1
Aug 1, 2026 NYY @ CHC 2 - 5
Jul 31, 2026 NYY @ CHC 2 - 0
Jul 13, 2025 CHC @ NYY 4 - 1
Jul 12, 2025 CHC @ NYY 5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.374
OPS
▲ 1.041
0
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +850.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +52.7% more
New York: 3.4 vs Chicago: 2.2
Slugging Pct (Season) +44.9%
New York: 59.4% vs Chicago: 14.5%
Home Runs (L5) +31.7% more
New York: 1.9 vs Chicago: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.5 0
NYY Score 6.5 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 9.5 15.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 7.7 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 17.2 / 16.1 28.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.2 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CHC
NYY
CHC
ML
47% 76-85
58% 93-68
52% 85-77
51% 82-79
ATS
59% 95-66
61% 97-63-1
53% 86-76
47% 75-85-1
TTL
53% 81-73-7
52% 81-74-6
53% 82-72-7
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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