Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Reds COL @ CIN

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

21-72  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jul 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

48-46  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Chase Burns
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Burns

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Mejia None-None 4.09 -- 1.0 1
Chase Burns None-None 6.19 -- 6.0 10
None-None W-L None-None
4.09 Ldr ERA 6.19
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
22%
📊
REDS
78%
ROCKIES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

30.5%

Reds Cover

69.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

COL By 1-2 runs

13.5%

COL By 3-4 runs

7.7%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.55
COLORADO
4.59
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
6
COLORADO
7
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
78% Win Prob
B
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 CIN @ COL 9 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 CIN @ COL 3 - 10
Jul 17, 2026 CIN @ COL 7 - 2
Apr 30, 2026 COL @ CIN 4 - 6
Apr 29, 2026 COL @ CIN 13 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.739 ▲
OPS
.699
180
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +18.3% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Colorado: 180.0
Home Runs (L5) +18.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.1 vs Colorado: 0.9
Walks (L5) +9.7% more
Cincinnati: 3.6 vs Colorado: 3.3
Errors (L5) +47.6% more
Colorado: 1.1 vs Cincinnati: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 2.6 3
CIN Score 4.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.7 / 7.5 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 6.7 16.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 11.6 16.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.3 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
COL
CIN
COL
ML
55% 88-71
60% 97-64
49% 79-81
55% 88-73
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 97-64
50% 80-80
52% 83-78
TTL
53% 81-73-5
60% 93-62-6
54% 83-72-5
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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