Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Twins PIT @ MIN

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

38-56  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Jul 11 • 8:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

45-48  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Carmen Mlodzinski
STARTING PITCHER

Carmen Mlodzinski

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Joe Ryan
STARTING PITCHER

Joe Ryan

#41 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carmen Mlodzinski None-None 4.74 -- 3.0 4
Joe Ryan None-None 2.72 -- 5.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
4.74 ERA Ldr 2.72
-- WHIP --
3.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
42%
📊
TWINS
58%
PIRATES --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 38%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Minnesota)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

44.4%

Twins Cover

55.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

PIT By 1-2 runs

17.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

11.9%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.2%

MIN By 3-4 runs

15.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.7
PITTSBURGH
4.26
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 31, 2026 MIN @ PIT 3 - 9
May 30, 2026 MIN @ PIT 9 - 10
May 29, 2026 MIN @ PIT 5 - 6
Jul 13, 2025 PIT @ MIN 2 - 1
Jul 12, 2025 PIT @ MIN 4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734 ▲
OPS
.720
186
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +76.0% more
Minnesota: 1.4 vs Pittsburgh: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +37.7% more
Minnesota: 13.3 vs Pittsburgh: 9.7
Hits (L5) +15.0% more
Minnesota: 7.1 vs Pittsburgh: 6.2
Errors (L5) +9.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.3 vs Minnesota: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.7 1
MIN Score 4.3 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 6.2 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 7.2 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 9.7 10.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.1 / 1.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PIT
MIN
PIT
ML
52% 84-78
52% 82-77
50% 80-81
52% 85-78
ATS
59% 95-67
54% 86-73
59% 95-66
50% 81-82
TTL
51% 78-75-9
47% 72-81-6
53% 80-72-9
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
si 0 minutes ago
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 3 hours, 48 minutes ago
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 3 hours, 49 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 3 hours, 56 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 3 hours, 59 minutes ago