Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Brewers WSH @ MIL

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

38-55  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jul 11 • 8:10 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

53-40  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Daylen Lile
STARTING PITCHER

Daylen Lile

#4 | Left Field
@
Joey Ortiz
STARTING PITCHER

Joey Ortiz

#3 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daylen Lile None-None -- -- -- --
Joey Ortiz None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
34%
📊
BREWERS
66%
NATIONALS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Milwaukee)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

29.3%

Brewers Cover

70.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.0%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.4%

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.5%

MIL By 3-4 runs

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.73
WASHINGTON
6.91
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MIL @ WSH 2 - 3
May 2, 2026 MIL @ WSH 4 - 1
May 1, 2026 MIL @ WSH 6 - 1
Apr 12, 2026 WSH @ MIL 8 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 WSH @ MIL 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
5.07
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.744 ▲
OPS
.743
210 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +44.9% more
Milwaukee: 11.4 vs Washington: 7.9
Walks (L5) +15.5% more
Milwaukee: 3.2 vs Washington: 2.8
Hits (L5) +8.0% more
Milwaukee: 8.2 vs Washington: 7.6
On-Base Pct (Season) +2.0%
Milwaukee: 34.1% vs Washington: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.7 3
MIL Score 6.9 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.6 10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.4 / 7.9 7.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 11.6 19.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.8 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
WSH
MIL
WSH
ML
62% 101-61
57% 92-69
52% 84-78
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 94-68
58% 93-68
48% 78-84
57% 91-70
TTL
40% 62-92-8
50% 77-78-6
50% 77-77-8
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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