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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

40-52  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Jul 11 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

50-44  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Raisel Iglesias None-None 4.54 -- 1.0 1
Matt Svanson None-None 3.12 -- 2.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.54 ERA Ldr 3.12
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
40%
📊
CARDINALS
60%
BRAVES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (St. Louis)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

42.4%

Cardinals Cover

57.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

16.9%

ATL By 3-4 runs

11.3%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.4%

STL By 3-4 runs

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.02
ATLANTA
3.79
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
5
ATLANTA
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
60% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Braves (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 ATL @ STL 4 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 4
Jul 10, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 2
Jul 2, 2026 STL @ ATL 11 - 5
Jul 1, 2026 STL @ ATL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
St. Louis STL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.757 ▲
OPS
.691
1
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16600.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
St. Louis: 0.2 vs Atlanta: 0.0
Hits (L5) +11.9% more
St. Louis: 8.2 vs Atlanta: 7.3
Batting Avg (Season) +0.6%
St. Louis: 23.9% vs Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.0 6
STL Score 3.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.3 10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 2.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.0 / 12.1 9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 16.1 12.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.1 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ATL
STL
ATL
ML
53% 85-74
46% 77-90
52% 84-77
54% 90-78
ATS
56% 89-70
57% 96-71
53% 85-76
52% 87-81
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 83-73-11
50% 76-75-10
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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