Home / MLB Projections MLB / Diamondbacks @ Angels ARI @ LAA

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

46-48  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Jul 11 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

45-48  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Geraldo Perdomo
STARTING PITCHER

Geraldo Perdomo

#2 | Shortstop
@
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Geraldo Perdomo None-None -- -- -- --
Reid Detmers None-None 4.25 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.25
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
51%
📊
ANGELS
49%
DIAMONDBACKS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

66.0%

Angels Cover

34.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

17.8%

LAA By 1-2 runs

14.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.95
ARIZONA
4.3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 LAA @ ARI 1 - 8
Jun 16, 2026 LAA @ ARI 7 - 0
Jun 15, 2026 LAA @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 13, 2025 ARI @ LAA 5 - 1
Jul 12, 2025 ARI @ LAA 5 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.720 ▲
OPS
.679
166 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +11.4% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Home Runs (Season) +7.2% more
Arizona: 166.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
OPS (Season) +4.1%
Arizona: 72.0% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 6.0 5
LAA Score 4.3 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 7.3 12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.2 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 6.5 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 16.3 / 13.8 21.0 / 20.0
Walks 4.7 / 2.6 2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
ARI
LAA
ARI
ML
59% 96-66
54% 87-74
55% 89-73
54% 86-74
ATS
60% 97-65
57% 91-70
51% 82-80
56% 89-71
TTL
53% 83-74-5
52% 80-73-8
52% 82-75-5
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 11 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 1 minute ago
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
newspub_live 12 hours, 7 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 7 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 18 hours, 11 minutes ago