CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
54-38 | Road
8
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
45-47 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Rea
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Royce Lewis
#23 | First Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea | None-None | 3.91 | -- | 7.0 | 5 |
| Royce Lewis | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.91
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
7.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
5
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
60%
TWINS
40%
CUBS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
CHC By 1-2 runs
16.8%
CHC By 3-4 runs
11.2%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.4%
MIN By 3-4 runs
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.12
CHICAGO
Minnesota
5.92
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
MIN @ CHC
1 - 10
Jul 18, 2026
MIN @ CHC
2 - 6
Jul 17, 2026
MIN @ CHC
5 - 2
Jul 10, 2025
CHC @ MIN
8 - 1
Jul 9, 2025
CHC @ MIN
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Minnesota
MIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.374
OPS
▲
.720
0
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+18700.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+406.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+39.2% more
Minnesota: 2.6
vs
Chicago: 1.9
Home Runs (L5)
+37.3% more
Minnesota: 1.6
vs
Chicago: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.1
8
MIN Score
5.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 7.3
4.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.2
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 7.1
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.0 / 12.1
8.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.6 / 1.9
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CHC
MIN
CHC
ML
52%
84-78
58%
93-68
50%
80-81
51%
82-79
ATS
59%
95-67
61%
97-63-1
59%
95-66
47%
75-85-1
TTL
51%
78-75-9
52%
81-74-6
53%
80-72-9
46%
72-83-6
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