MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
42-49 | Road
0
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
47-46 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sam Moll
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.93 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Sam Moll | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.93 Ldr
ERA
6.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
46%
REDS
54%
MARLINS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
39%
Under 0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.7%
CIN By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.48
MIAMI
Cincinnati
3.87
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
B
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
MIA @ CIN
7 - 1
Aug 15, 2026
MIA @ CIN
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
MIA @ CIN
0 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
CIN @ MIA
1 - 8
Apr 8, 2026
CIN @ MIA
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.727
▲
OPS
.699
168
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.1% more
Miami: 8.1
vs
Cincinnati: 6.8
Hits (L5)
+15.5% more
Miami: 8.4
vs
Cincinnati: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+8.6% more
Miami: 12.9
vs
Cincinnati: 11.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.8% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.5
0
CIN Score
3.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.4
9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 8.1
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 12.9
12.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.3
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIA
CIN
MIA
ML
55%
88-71
48%
78-84
49%
79-81
55%
88-72
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-71
50%
80-80
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
81-73-5
56%
88-69-5
54%
83-72-5
53%
82-73-5
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