SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
48-44 | Road
5
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
51-41 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Volpe
#11 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.60 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Anthony Volpe | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.60
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
47%
YANKEES
53%
MARINERS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
SEA By 1-2 runs
12.4%
SEA By 3-4 runs
6.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.2%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.14
SEATTLE
New York
6.55
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
SEA @ NYY
5 - 10
Aug 11, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 4
Apr 1, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 3
Mar 31, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.693
OPS
▲
1.041
182
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+119.5% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Hits (L5)
+63.3% more
New York: 11.6
vs
Seattle: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+38.7% more
New York: 21.2
vs
Seattle: 15.3
Walks (L5)
+37.3% more
New York: 3.1
vs
Seattle: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.1
5
NYY Score
6.6
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.6 / 7.1
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 2.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 8.2
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
21.2 / 15.3
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.3
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
SEA
NYY
SEA
ML
47%
76-85
50%
81-81
52%
85-77
52%
85-77
ATS
59%
95-66
60%
98-64
53%
86-76
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-7
56%
85-67-10
53%
82-72-7
53%
81-71-10
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