WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
38-54 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
49-44 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Miles Mikolas
#36 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | None-None | 4.94 | -- | 5.2 | 6 |
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 3.10 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.94
ERA
Ldr 3.10
--
WHIP
--
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
39%
CARDINALS
61%
NATIONALS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.9%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.42
WASHINGTON
St. Louis
5.31
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
WSH @ STL
3 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
WSH @ STL
8 - 5
Sep 18, 2026
WSH @ STL
9 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
STL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 7, 2026
STL @ WSH
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.744
▲
OPS
.691
210
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+14.3% more
St. Louis: 3.0
vs
Washington: 2.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.6% more
Washington: 7.8
vs
St. Louis: 5.5
Home Runs (L5)
+23.0% more
Washington: 1.1
vs
St. Louis: 0.9
Hits (L5)
+22.7% more
Washington: 9.4
vs
St. Louis: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.4
1
STL Score
5.3
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 9.4
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 7.8
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 14.8
16.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.7
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
WSH
STL
WSH
ML
53%
85-74
57%
92-69
52%
84-77
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
89-70
58%
93-68
53%
85-76
57%
91-70
TTL
46%
68-81-10
50%
77-78-6
50%
76-75-10
42%
65-90-6
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