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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

40-51  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Jul 10 • 9:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

38-56  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
@
J.T. Ginn
STARTING PITCHER

J.T. Ginn

#35 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Raisel Iglesias None-None 4.67 -- 1.0 1
J.T. Ginn None-None 4.78 -- 1.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.67 Ldr ERA 4.78
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
54%
📊
ATHLETICS
46%
BRAVES --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Athletics)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

45.0%

Athletics Cover

55.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATL By 1-2 runs

17.5%

ATL By 3-4 runs

12.1%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.1%

ATH By 3-4 runs

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
ATLANTA
3.9
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 ATH @ ATL 1 - 5
Mar 31, 2026 ATH @ ATL 5 - 2
Mar 30, 2026 ATH @ ATL 0 - 4
Jul 10, 2025 ATL @ ATH 4 - 5
Jul 9, 2025 ATL @ ATH 9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Athletics ATH
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.757 ▲
OPS
.719
1
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +19300.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5) +68.0% more
Athletics: 0.7 vs Atlanta: 0.0
Walks (L5) +15.7% more
Athletics: 3.1 vs Atlanta: 2.7
Batting Avg (Season) +1.2%
Athletics: 24.5% vs Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.4 4
ATH Score 3.9 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 8.4 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 2.5 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 10.1 12.0 / 16.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 17.7 16.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.7 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
ATL
ATH
ATL
ML
59% 95-67
46% 77-90
54% 87-74
54% 90-78
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 96-71
50% 81-80
52% 87-81
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 83-73-11
42% 66-90-5
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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