PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
53-39 | Road
13
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
51-42 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jung Hoo Lee
#51 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | None-None | 4.14 | -- | 7.0 | 7 |
| Jung Hoo Lee | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.14
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
7.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
7
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
53%
GIANTS
47%
PHILLIES
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.0%
PHI By 3-4 runs
12.9%
SF By 1-2 runs
18.8%
SF By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.75
PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco
3.99
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Giants (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Giants (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
SF @ PHI
2 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
SF @ PHI
0 - 7
Apr 8, 2026
PHI @ SF
0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026
PHI @ SF
0 - 6
Apr 6, 2026
PHI @ SF
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
San Francisco
SF
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.13
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.306
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724
▲
OPS
.706
3
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5833.3% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+65.1% more
San Francisco: 3.8
vs
Philadelphia: 2.3
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
San Francisco: 0.6
vs
Philadelphia: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+18.0% more
San Francisco: 4.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.8
13
SF Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 7.9
4.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 9.1
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 12.4
4.0 / 27.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.3
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
PHI
SF
PHI
ML
49%
79-81
59%
97-67
53%
85-75
49%
80-84
ATS
62%
100-60
65%
107-57
52%
83-77
51%
83-81
TTL
55%
82-68-10
57%
88-67-9
46%
68-81-11
51%
78-76-9
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