Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Yankees SEA @ NYY

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

48-43  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Jul 9 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

50-41  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Cole Young
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Young

#2 | Second Base
@
Cam Schlittler
STARTING PITCHER

Cam Schlittler

#31 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cole Young None-None -- -- -- --
Cam Schlittler None-None 5.06 -- 5.1 7
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.06
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 5.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
48%
📊
YANKEES
52%
MARINERS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (New York)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

29.0%

Yankees Cover

71.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

SEA By 1-2 runs

13.0%

SEA By 3-4 runs

7.3%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.4%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.1
SEATTLE
6.31
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 SEA @ NYY 1 - 0
Aug 12, 2026 SEA @ NYY 5 - 10
Aug 11, 2026 SEA @ NYY 1 - 4
Apr 1, 2026 NYY @ SEA 5 - 3
Mar 31, 2026 NYY @ SEA 5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.693
OPS
▲ 1.041
182 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +119.5% more
New York: 9.0 vs Seattle: 4.1
Home Runs (L5) +104.0% more
New York: 2.6 vs Seattle: 1.3
Walks (L5) +92.2% more
New York: 3.7 vs Seattle: 1.9
Total Bases (L5) +67.4% more
New York: 20.8 vs Seattle: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.1 6
NYY Score 6.3 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.9 / 7.2 13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.6 / 1.3 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 10.3 14.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 20.8 / 12.5 22.0 / 21.0
Walks 3.7 / 1.9 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
SEA
NYY
SEA
ML
47% 76-85
50% 81-81
52% 85-77
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 95-66
60% 98-64
53% 86-76
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 81-73-7
56% 85-67-10
53% 82-72-7
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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