Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Red Sox COL @ BOS

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

21-71  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Jul 9 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

48-45  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Romy Gonzalez
STARTING PITCHER

Romy Gonzalez

#23 | Designated Hitter
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 3.06 -- 1.0 1
Romy Gonzalez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.06 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
22%
📊
RED SOX
78%
ROCKIES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Boston)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

32.4%

Red Sox Cover

67.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

COL By 1-2 runs

14.1%

COL By 3-4 runs

8.3%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

18.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.79
COLORADO
5.62
BOSTON
Simulated Score
5
COLORADO
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
78% Win Prob
B
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
C
Sim Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 24, 2026 BOS @ COL 6 - 8
Jun 23, 2026 BOS @ COL 5 - 2
Jun 22, 2026 BOS @ COL 2 - 3
Jul 9, 2025 COL @ BOS 2 - 10
Jul 8, 2025 COL @ BOS 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.739 ▲
OPS
.409
180 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +110.0% more
Boston: 2.0 vs Colorado: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +89.6% more
Boston: 21.6 vs Colorado: 11.4
Hits (L5) +62.3% more
Boston: 11.7 vs Colorado: 7.2
Strikeouts (L5) +23.4% more
Boston: 9.2 vs Colorado: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.8 2
BOS Score 5.6 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.7 / 7.2 15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.9 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 7.5 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 21.6 / 11.4 31.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.4 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
COL
BOS
COL
ML
50% 80-80
60% 97-64
47% 76-87
55% 88-73
ATS
58% 93-67
60% 97-64
48% 79-84
52% 83-78
TTL
46% 72-83-5
60% 93-62-6
47% 74-83-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Nick Martinez's Journey from Ejection at Yankee Stadium to ALCS …
yourvalley_net 1 day, 12 hours ago
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…
yahoo 2 days, 6 hours ago
Phillies' Wild Card Collapse: Bullpen Blunders, Painter's Promis…
yahoo 3 days, 6 hours ago
Penalties and Turnovers Sink Colorado in 29-7 Loss to No. 12 Tex…
si 4 days, 6 hours ago
Cleveland Guardians Set ALDS Roster Without Rhys Hoskins, Colin …
yahoo 5 days, 6 hours ago