MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
42-48 | Road
2
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
46-46 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | None-None | 7.22 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.08 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.22
ERA
Ldr 3.08
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
47%
REDS
53%
MARLINS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.4%
MIA By 3-4 runs
19.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
10.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
6.3
MIAMI
Cincinnati
3.29
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
MIA @ CIN
7 - 1
Aug 15, 2026
MIA @ CIN
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
MIA @ CIN
0 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
CIN @ MIA
1 - 8
Apr 8, 2026
CIN @ MIA
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.727
▲
OPS
.699
168
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+43.4% more
Miami: 9.1
vs
Cincinnati: 5.2
Total Bases (L5)
+41.0% more
Miami: 13.8
vs
Cincinnati: 8.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.7% more
Miami: 9.7
vs
Cincinnati: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.8% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
6.3
2
CIN Score
3.3
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.2 / 9.1
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.7
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 9.7
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
8.2 / 13.8
19.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.1 / 1.9
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIA
CIN
MIA
ML
55%
88-71
48%
78-84
49%
79-81
55%
88-72
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-71
50%
80-80
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
81-73-5
56%
88-69-5
54%
83-72-5
53%
82-73-5
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