PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
38-55 | Road
3
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
45-48 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 2.05 | -- | 2.1 | 3 |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.04 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.05
ERA
Ldr 2.04
--
WHIP
--
2.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
42%
ROYALS
58%
PIRATES
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
PIT By 1-2 runs
12.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.1%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.4%
KC By 3-4 runs
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.28
PITTSBURGH
Kansas City
4.55
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
KC @ PIT
3 - 4
Sep 19, 2026
KC @ PIT
5 - 6
Sep 18, 2026
KC @ PIT
5 - 8
Jul 9, 2025
PIT @ KC
3 - 4
Jul 8, 2025
PIT @ KC
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734
▲
OPS
.718
186
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+110.6% more
Kansas City: 3.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.4
Home Runs (L5)
+109.0% more
Kansas City: 2.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+73.0% more
Kansas City: 16.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.5
Hits (L5)
+59.1% more
Kansas City: 8.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.3
3
KC Score
4.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 5.3
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.0
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 7.4
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 9.5
25.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.0 / 1.4
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
PIT
KC
PIT
ML
55%
89-72
52%
82-77
56%
90-70
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
58%
93-67
50%
81-82
TTL
58%
90-64-7
47%
72-81-6
54%
83-70-7
50%
79-78-6
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