WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
37-54 | Road
8
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
49-43 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Young
#30 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Young | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 3.47 | -- | 1.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.47
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
38%
CARDINALS
62%
NATIONALS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
7.6%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
STL By 3-4 runs
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.71
WASHINGTON
St. Louis
5.8
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
WSH @ STL
3 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
WSH @ STL
8 - 5
Sep 18, 2026
WSH @ STL
9 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
STL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 7, 2026
STL @ WSH
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.744
▲
OPS
.691
210
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+112.0% more
St. Louis: 1.3
vs
Washington: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+19.1% more
St. Louis: 3.6
vs
Washington: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.7% more
St. Louis: 7.3
vs
Washington: 6.2
Total Bases (L5)
+9.9% more
St. Louis: 12.9
vs
Washington: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.7
8
STL Score
5.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.6
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 6.2
2.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 11.8
10.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
WSH
STL
WSH
ML
53%
85-74
57%
92-69
52%
84-77
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
89-70
58%
93-68
53%
85-76
57%
91-70
TTL
46%
68-81-10
50%
77-78-6
50%
76-75-10
42%
65-90-6
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