ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
39-51 | Road
9
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
38-55 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 2.20 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 3.97 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.20 Ldr
ERA
3.97
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
53%
ATHLETICS
47%
BRAVES
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATL By 1-2 runs
10.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
5.3%
ATH By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
1.94
ATLANTA
Athletics
4.99
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Athletics
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Athletics
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.1
B
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
ATH @ ATL
1 - 5
Mar 31, 2026
ATH @ ATL
5 - 2
Mar 30, 2026
ATH @ ATL
0 - 4
Jul 10, 2025
ATL @ ATH
4 - 5
Jul 9, 2025
ATL @ ATH
9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Athletics
ATH
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.757
▲
OPS
.719
1
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+19300.0% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+106.7% more
Athletics: 2.5
vs
Atlanta: 1.2
Errors (L5)
+102.0% more
Athletics: 1.1
vs
Atlanta: 0.0
Total Bases (L5)
+45.7% more
Athletics: 18.2
vs
Atlanta: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
1.9
9
ATH Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.2
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
2.5 / 1.2
0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 10.1
4.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
18.2 / 12.5
11.0 / 28.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.5
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
ATL
ATH
ATL
ML
59%
95-67
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
ATS
52%
84-78
57%
96-71
50%
81-80
52%
87-81
TTL
54%
84-73-5
53%
83-73-11
42%
66-90-5
49%
76-80-11
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