SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
48-42 | Road
3
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
49-41 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | None-None | 3.72 | -- | 5.1 | 5 |
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.38 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.72
ERA
Ldr 2.38
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
49%
YANKEES
51%
MARINERS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
SEA By 1-2 runs
16.1%
SEA By 3-4 runs
10.4%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
16.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.26
SEATTLE
New York
5.34
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
A
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
SEA @ NYY
5 - 10
Aug 11, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 4
Apr 1, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 3
Mar 31, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.693
OPS
▲
1.041
182
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+119.5% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Walks (L5)
+86.8% more
New York: 3.5
vs
Seattle: 1.9
Home Runs (L5)
+69.3% more
New York: 2.3
vs
Seattle: 1.4
Total Bases (L5)
+50.0% more
New York: 19.8
vs
Seattle: 13.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.3
3
NYY Score
5.3
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
10.4 / 7.3
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 1.4
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 10.9
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
19.8 / 13.2
23.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.5 / 1.9
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
SEA
NYY
SEA
ML
47%
76-85
50%
81-81
52%
85-77
52%
85-77
ATS
59%
95-66
60%
98-64
53%
86-76
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-7
56%
85-67-10
53%
82-72-7
53%
81-71-10
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