MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
41-48 | Road
12
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
46-45 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Trevino
#35 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 2.57 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jose Trevino | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.57 Ldr
ERA
3.86
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
46%
REDS
54%
MARLINS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
15.5%
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
11.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.21
MIAMI
Cincinnati
4.53
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
A
Sim
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
MIA @ CIN
7 - 1
Aug 15, 2026
MIA @ CIN
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
MIA @ CIN
0 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
CIN @ MIA
1 - 8
Apr 8, 2026
CIN @ MIA
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.727
▲
OPS
.699
168
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.5% more
Miami: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+39.2% more
Miami: 12.7
vs
Cincinnati: 7.7
Hits (L5)
+31.8% more
Miami: 7.7
vs
Cincinnati: 5.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.8% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.2
12
CIN Score
4.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.2 / 7.7
5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 8.0
2.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
7.7 / 12.7
9.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.7 / 1.4
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIA
CIN
MIA
ML
55%
88-71
48%
78-84
49%
79-81
55%
88-72
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-71
50%
80-80
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
81-73-5
56%
88-69-5
54%
83-72-5
53%
82-73-5
Contextual Game News
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
Padres Reinforce Bullpen as Mason Miller Rejoins for NLDS Game 4