COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
21-70 | Road
2
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
47-45 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zach Agnos
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brayan Bello
#66 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Agnos | None-None | 5.19 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Brayan Bello | None-None | 3.27 | -- | 9.0 | 10 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.19
ERA
Ldr 3.27
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 9.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
22%
RED SOX
78%
ROCKIES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
COL By 1-2 runs
15.7%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.0%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
4.02
COLORADO
Boston
5.24
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
78% Win Prob
B
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 24, 2026
BOS @ COL
6 - 8
Jun 23, 2026
BOS @ COL
5 - 2
Jun 22, 2026
BOS @ COL
2 - 3
Jul 9, 2025
COL @ BOS
2 - 10
Jul 8, 2025
COL @ BOS
2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.739
▲
OPS
.409
180
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+115.0% more
Boston: 1.9
vs
Colorado: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+74.9% more
Boston: 22.9
vs
Colorado: 13.1
Hits (L5)
+51.0% more
Boston: 12.6
vs
Colorado: 8.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.4% more
Boston: 8.9
vs
Colorado: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
4.0
2
BOS Score
5.2
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
12.6 / 8.3
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 7.2
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
22.9 / 13.1
19.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.7
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
COL
BOS
COL
ML
50%
80-80
60%
97-64
47%
76-87
55%
88-73
ATS
58%
93-67
60%
97-64
48%
79-84
52%
83-78
TTL
46%
72-83-5
60%
93-62-6
47%
74-83-6
50%
77-78-6
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