PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
38-54 | Road
3
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
44-48 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 3.58 | -- | 6.2 | 5 |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.10 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.58
ERA
Ldr 2.10
--
WHIP
--
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
43%
ROYALS
57%
PIRATES
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
PIT By 1-2 runs
14.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
KC By 3-4 runs
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.57
PITTSBURGH
Kansas City
4.27
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
KC @ PIT
3 - 4
Sep 19, 2026
KC @ PIT
5 - 6
Sep 18, 2026
KC @ PIT
5 - 8
Jul 9, 2025
PIT @ KC
3 - 4
Jul 8, 2025
PIT @ KC
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734
▲
OPS
.718
186
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+168.5% more
Kansas City: 18.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.8
Home Runs (L5)
+163.0% more
Kansas City: 2.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+84.5% more
Kansas City: 9.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.0
Walks (L5)
+83.9% more
Kansas City: 3.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.6
3
KC Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.2 / 5.0
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.5
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.0
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
18.2 / 6.8
13.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.0 / 1.6
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
PIT
KC
PIT
ML
55%
89-72
52%
82-77
56%
90-70
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
58%
93-67
50%
81-82
TTL
58%
90-64-7
47%
72-81-6
54%
83-70-7
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …