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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

54-36  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Jul 8 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

43-47  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brooks Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Brooks Lee

#22 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Thielbar None-None 1.83 -- 1.0 1
Brooks Lee None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.83 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
62%
📊
TWINS
38%
CUBS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Minnesota)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

24.5%

Twins Cover

75.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

CHC By 1-2 runs

11.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

5.9%

MIN By 1-2 runs

18.8%

MIN By 3-4 runs

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.83
CHICAGO
6.59
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.8
D
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 MIN @ CHC 1 - 10
Jul 18, 2026 MIN @ CHC 2 - 6
Jul 17, 2026 MIN @ CHC 5 - 2
Jul 10, 2025 CHC @ MIN 8 - 1
Jul 9, 2025 CHC @ MIN 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Minnesota MIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.374
OPS
▲ .720
0
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +18700.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +406.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +34.6%
Minnesota: 72.0% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Errors (L5) +28.0% more
Minnesota: 0.6 vs Chicago: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.8 1
MIN Score 6.6 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 10.4 12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 2.2 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 8.4 9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 19.8 24.0 / 9.0
Walks 1.8 / 2.2 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CHC
MIN
CHC
ML
52% 84-78
58% 93-68
50% 80-81
51% 82-79
ATS
59% 95-67
61% 97-63-1
59% 95-66
47% 75-85-1
TTL
51% 78-75-9
52% 81-74-6
53% 80-72-9
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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