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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

37-53  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Jul 8 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

48-43  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
@
Pedro Pages
STARTING PITCHER

Pedro Pages

#43 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Irvin None-None 4.78 -- 6.0 3
Pedro Pages None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.78 ERA --
-- WHIP --
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
3 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
38%
📊
CARDINALS
62%
NATIONALS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

52.1%

Cardinals Cover

47.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.8%

WSH By 3-4 runs

14.2%

STL By 1-2 runs

18.1%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.9
WASHINGTON
4.69
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 WSH @ STL 3 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 WSH @ STL 8 - 5
Sep 18, 2026 WSH @ STL 9 - 1
Apr 8, 2026 STL @ WSH 6 - 1
Apr 7, 2026 STL @ WSH 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.744 ▲
OPS
.691
210 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +46.7% more
Washington: 1.1 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Hits (L5) +26.9% more
Washington: 10.3 vs St. Louis: 7.6
Home Runs (Season) +20.5% more
Washington: 210.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Runs per Game (Season) +12.4% more
Washington: 5.1 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.9 2
STL Score 4.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 10.3 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.3 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 7.3 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 12.7 15.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.8 / 2.5 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
WSH
STL
WSH
ML
53% 85-74
57% 92-69
52% 84-77
54% 87-74
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 93-68
53% 85-76
57% 91-70
TTL
46% 68-81-10
50% 77-78-6
50% 76-75-10
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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