CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
41-48 | Road
10
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
55-36 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Gaddis
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Gaddis | None-None | 3.79 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 2.38 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.79
ERA
Ldr 2.38
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
36%
ASTROS
64%
GUARDIANS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
13.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.4%
HOU By 3-4 runs
13.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.9
CLEVELAND
Houston
3.91
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
CLE @ HOU
1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026
CLE @ HOU
8 - 1
Jun 19, 2026
CLE @ HOU
3 - 9
Apr 22, 2026
HOU @ CLE
2 - 0
Apr 21, 2026
HOU @ CLE
5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.380
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.696
▲
OPS
.582
162
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+152.0% more
Houston: 2.5
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+52.9% more
Houston: 19.5
vs
Cleveland: 12.8
Hits (L5)
+31.8% more
Houston: 9.7
vs
Cleveland: 7.4
Home Runs (Season)
+97.5% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.9
10
HOU Score
3.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 7.4
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.5 / 0.9
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 7.5
6.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
19.5 / 12.8
16.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.6
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CLE
HOU
CLE
ML
50%
81-82
54%
87-74
47%
77-87
49%
80-82
ATS
56%
91-72
58%
93-68
55%
90-74
59%
95-67
TTL
45%
70-84-9
55%
88-71-2
45%
69-86-9
43%
69-90-2
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…