ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
45-46 | Road
0
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
48-42 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 3.41 | -- | 7.0 | 4 |
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 1.79 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.41
ERA
Ldr 1.79
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
46%
PADRES
54%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.1%
SD By 1-2 runs
14.1%
SD By 3-4 runs
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.71
ARIZONA
San Diego
3.91
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
B
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+59.0% more
Arizona: 0.8
vs
San Diego: 0.3
Home Runs (L5)
+31.7% more
Arizona: 1.0
vs
San Diego: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.7% more
Arizona: 9.0
vs
San Diego: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.7
0
SD Score
3.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.1
4.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 9.0
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 12.8
7.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.7
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ARI
SD
ARI
ML
51%
85-83
54%
87-74
51%
85-82
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
91-70
55%
92-75
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
80-73-8
54%
86-74-6
49%
73-77-9
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