PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
53-38 | Road
3
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
50-42 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Marsh
#16 | Left Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Jung Hoo Lee
#51 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marsh | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jung Hoo Lee | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
54%
GIANTS
46%
PHILLIES
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
12.4%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.0%
SF By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.83
PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco
4.23
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Giants (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Giants (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
SF @ PHI
2 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
SF @ PHI
0 - 7
Apr 8, 2026
PHI @ SF
0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026
PHI @ SF
0 - 6
Apr 6, 2026
PHI @ SF
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
San Francisco
SF
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.13
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.306
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724
▲
OPS
.706
3
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5833.3% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+89.2% more
San Francisco: 3.7
vs
Philadelphia: 1.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+18.0% more
San Francisco: 4.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Hits (L5)
+15.1% more
San Francisco: 8.5
vs
Philadelphia: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.8
3
SF Score
4.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 7.4
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 9.7
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 11.6
13.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.7 / 1.9
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
PHI
SF
PHI
ML
49%
79-81
59%
97-67
53%
85-75
49%
80-84
ATS
62%
100-60
65%
107-57
52%
83-77
51%
83-81
TTL
55%
82-68-10
57%
88-67-9
46%
68-81-11
51%
78-76-9
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