ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
39-50 | Road
1
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
37-55 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Didier Fuentes
#72 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Didier Fuentes | None-None | 13.85 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 4.35 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
13.85
ERA
Ldr 4.35
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
54%
ATHLETICS
46%
BRAVES
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
78%
Under 0
22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.2%
ATL By 3-4 runs
13.2%
ATH By 1-2 runs
18.6%
ATH By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.01
ATLANTA
Athletics
3.12
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Athletics
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Athletics
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.1
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
ATH @ ATL
1 - 5
Mar 31, 2026
ATH @ ATL
5 - 2
Mar 30, 2026
ATH @ ATL
0 - 4
Jul 10, 2025
ATL @ ATH
4 - 5
Jul 9, 2025
ATL @ ATH
9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Athletics
ATH
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.757
▲
OPS
.719
1
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+19300.0% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+103.0% more
Athletics: 1.1
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+8.2% more
Athletics: 14.4
vs
Atlanta: 13.3
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.2%
Athletics: 24.5%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.0
1
ATH Score
3.1
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.7
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.3
5.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 10.7
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 13.3
26.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.8
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
ATL
ATH
ATL
ML
59%
95-67
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
ATS
52%
84-78
57%
96-71
50%
81-80
52%
87-81
TTL
54%
84-73-5
53%
83-73-11
42%
66-90-5
49%
76-80-11
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