COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
21-69 | Road
3
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
46-45 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brennan Bernardino
#83 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brennan Bernardino | None-None | 3.72 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 3.53 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.72
ERA
Ldr 3.53
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
23%
RED SOX
77%
ROCKIES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
COL By 1-2 runs
17.9%
COL By 3-4 runs
12.7%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.9%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
4.57
COLORADO
Boston
4.88
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Boston
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Rockies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 24, 2026
BOS @ COL
6 - 8
Jun 23, 2026
BOS @ COL
5 - 2
Jun 22, 2026
BOS @ COL
2 - 3
Jul 9, 2025
COL @ BOS
2 - 10
Jul 8, 2025
COL @ BOS
2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.739
▲
OPS
.409
180
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+34.4% more
Boston: 20.3
vs
Colorado: 15.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.9% more
Boston: 7.8
vs
Colorado: 5.9
Hits (L5)
+31.7% more
Boston: 11.8
vs
Colorado: 9.0
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Boston: 0.7
vs
Colorado: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
4.6
3
BOS Score
4.9
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.8 / 9.0
14.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 5.9
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
20.3 / 15.1
28.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.4 / 5.0
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
COL
BOS
COL
ML
50%
80-80
60%
97-64
47%
76-87
55%
88-73
ATS
58%
93-67
60%
97-64
48%
79-84
52%
83-78
TTL
46%
72-83-5
60%
93-62-6
47%
74-83-6
50%
77-78-6
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