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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

53-37  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Jul 7 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

49-42  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 2.83 -- 0.1 --
Camilo Doval None-None 3.10 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.83 Ldr ERA 3.10
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
55%
📊
GIANTS
45%
PHILLIES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

56.9%

Giants Cover

43.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

15.5%

SF By 1-2 runs

17.0%

SF By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.52
PHILADELPHIA
3.82
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 30, 2026 SF @ PHI 2 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 SF @ PHI 0 - 7
Apr 8, 2026 PHI @ SF 0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026 PHI @ SF 0 - 6
Apr 6, 2026 PHI @ SF 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724 ▲
OPS
.706
3
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +17.6% more
Philadelphia: 1.4 vs San Francisco: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5) +11.4% more
Philadelphia: 10.0 vs San Francisco: 8.9
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs San Francisco: 40.0%
OPS (Season) +1.8%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.5 1
SF Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 8.1 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 10.0 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 13.9 10.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.4 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
PHI
SF
PHI
ML
49% 79-81
59% 97-67
53% 85-75
49% 80-84
ATS
62% 100-60
65% 107-57
52% 83-77
51% 83-81
TTL
55% 82-68-10
57% 88-67-9
46% 68-81-11
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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