BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
45-45 | Road
6
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
37-52 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Daylen Lile
#4 | Left Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.25 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Daylen Lile | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.25
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
58%
NATIONALS
42%
RED SOX
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
18.7%
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.1%
WSH By 3-4 runs
7.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
6.15
BOSTON
Washington
3.99
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
WSH @ BOS
10 - 2
Jun 30, 2026
WSH @ BOS
8 - 1
Jun 29, 2026
WSH @ BOS
3 - 6
Jul 6, 2025
BOS @ WSH
6 - 4
Jul 5, 2025
BOS @ WSH
10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.409
OPS
▲
.744
2
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+61.6% more
Boston: 1.1
vs
Washington: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+37.6% more
Boston: 20.0
vs
Washington: 12.5
Hits (L5)
+19.1% more
Boston: 11.8
vs
Washington: 9.5
Home Runs (Season)
+10400.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
6.2
6
WSH Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 11.8
12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.1
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 6.2
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 20.0
13.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.0
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BOS
WSH
BOS
ML
57%
92-69
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
47%
76-87
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-67
57%
91-70
48%
79-84
TTL
50%
77-78-6
46%
72-83-5
42%
65-90-6
47%
74-83-6
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