Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Phillies CIN @ PHI

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

46-43  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Jul 6 • 1:35 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

52-37  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Zack Wheeler
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Wheeler

#45 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Moll None-None 6.35 -- 0.1 1
Zack Wheeler None-None 2.17 -- 9.0 12
None-None W-L None-None
6.35 ERA Ldr 2.17
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 9.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 12
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
43%
📊
PHILLIES
57%
REDS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 33%
Under 0 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Philadelphia)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

47.3%

Phillies Cover

52.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

CIN By 1-2 runs

17.9%

CIN By 3-4 runs

12.8%

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.8%

PHI By 3-4 runs

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.96
CINCINNATI
5.23
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 9, 2026 PHI @ CIN 1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026 PHI @ CIN 5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026 PHI @ CIN 4 - 1
May 20, 2026 CIN @ PHI 9 - 4
May 19, 2026 CIN @ PHI 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.305 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.699
OPS
▲ .724
213 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +91.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.6 vs Cincinnati: 0.7
Walks (L5) +59.7% more
Philadelphia: 3.6 vs Cincinnati: 2.3
Total Bases (L5) +17.0% more
Philadelphia: 15.4 vs Cincinnati: 13.2
Strikeouts (L5) +10.3% more
Philadelphia: 9.0 vs Cincinnati: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 5.0 1
PHI Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 9.0 7.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 8.2 12.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 13.2 11.0 / 4.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.3 0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CIN
PHI
CIN
ML
59% 97-67
55% 88-71
49% 80-84
49% 79-81
ATS
65% 107-57
54% 86-73
51% 83-81
50% 80-80
TTL
57% 88-67-9
53% 81-73-5
51% 78-76-9
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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