NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
48-41 | Road
6
NEW YORK
METSNYM
52-38 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
| Devin Williams | None-None | 5.01 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
5.01
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
46%
METS
54%
YANKEES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
26%
Under 0
74%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.8%
NYY By 3-4 runs
11.3%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.87
NEW YORK
New York
4.65
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
NYM @ NYY
0 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
NYM @ NYY
12 - 2
Sep 11, 2026
NYM @ NYY
4 - 6
May 17, 2026
NYY @ NYM
6 - 7
May 16, 2026
NYY @ NYM
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
New York
NYM
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
1.041
▲
OPS
.705
2
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+10100.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.8% more
New York: 7.9
vs
New York: 7.0
Errors (L5)
+72.6% more
New York: 1.2
vs
New York: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+52.1% more
New York: 9.0
vs
New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
3.9
6
NYM Score
4.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 9.6
10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 2.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.0
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.4 / 19.1
10.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.3
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
NYY
NYM
NYY
ML
50%
79-80
47%
76-85
48%
76-83
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-66
59%
95-66
49%
78-81
53%
86-76
TTL
55%
80-66-13
53%
81-73-7
51%
74-72-13
53%
82-72-7
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