MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
49-40 | Road
3
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
40-47 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Heriberto Hernandez
#13 | Left Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 2.56 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Heriberto Hernandez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.56
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
59%
MARLINS
41%
BREWERS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIL By 1-2 runs
18.2%
MIL By 3-4 runs
13.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5.34
MILWAUKEE
Miami
5.47
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
A
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
MIA @ MIL
1 - 3
Jul 18, 2026
MIA @ MIL
6 - 8
Jul 17, 2026
MIA @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 19, 2026
MIL @ MIA
3 - 5
Apr 18, 2026
MIL @ MIA
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.743
▲
OPS
.727
154
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.0% more
Miami: 1.2
vs
Milwaukee: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.6% more
Miami: 10.3
vs
Milwaukee: 8.0
Home Runs (Season)
+9.1% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.6
vs
Miami: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
5.3
3
MIA Score
5.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.5
3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 8.0
5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 13.0
6.0 / 13.0
Walks
1.6 / 1.8
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIL
MIA
MIL
ML
48%
78-84
62%
101-61
55%
88-72
52%
84-78
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
94-68
54%
86-74
48%
78-84
TTL
56%
88-69-5
40%
62-92-8
53%
82-73-5
50%
77-77-8
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