TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
48-41 | Road
7
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
43-46 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Joe Ryan
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | None-None | 4.23 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Joe Ryan | None-None | 2.76 | -- | 6.0 | 8 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.23
ERA
Ldr 2.76
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
56%
TWINS
44%
RAYS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.2%
TB By 3-4 runs
15.2%
MIN By 1-2 runs
17.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Minnesota
4.61
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 26, 2026
MIN @ TB
2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026
MIN @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 24, 2026
MIN @ TB
2 - 6
Apr 5, 2026
TB @ MIN
4 - 1
Apr 4, 2026
TB @ MIN
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.728
▲
OPS
.720
169
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.6% more
Tampa Bay: 10.2
vs
Minnesota: 7.2
Walks (L5)
+29.6% more
Tampa Bay: 3.2
vs
Minnesota: 2.2
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.7
vs
Minnesota: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+17.7% more
Tampa Bay: 14.7
vs
Minnesota: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.2
7
MIN Score
4.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 9.5
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.0
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 10.2
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 14.7
14.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.2
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TB
MIN
TB
ML
52%
84-78
58%
95-68
50%
80-81
58%
95-68
ATS
59%
95-67
60%
97-66
59%
95-66
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
78-75-9
47%
73-81-9
53%
80-72-9
51%
78-75-10
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