Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Diamondbacks KC @ ARI

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

42-48  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Jul 6 • 4:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

44-45  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Geraldo Perdomo
STARTING PITCHER

Geraldo Perdomo

#2 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 1.89 -- 1.0 2
Geraldo Perdomo None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.89 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
47%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
53%
ROYALS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

49.8%

Diamondbacks Cover

50.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

KC By 1-2 runs

18.4%

KC By 3-4 runs

13.5%

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.5%

ARI By 3-4 runs

13.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.33
KANSAS CITY
4.35
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
C
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 ARI @ KC 2 - 5
Sep 8, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 3
Sep 7, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 4
Jul 6, 2025 KC @ ARI 4 - 0
Jul 5, 2025 KC @ ARI 1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .720
170 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +81.0% more
Arizona: 1.5 vs Kansas City: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +22.0% more
Arizona: 14.1 vs Kansas City: 11.5
Strikeouts (L5) +13.2% more
Arizona: 8.8 vs Kansas City: 7.8
Runs per Game (Season) +7.0% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.3 4
ARI Score 4.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 7.6 3.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 7.8 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 11.5 4.0 / 17.0
Walks 1.2 / 3.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
KC
ARI
KC
ML
54% 87-74
55% 89-72
54% 86-74
56% 90-70
ATS
57% 91-70
57% 91-70
56% 89-71
58% 93-67
TTL
52% 80-73-8
58% 90-64-7
49% 73-77-9
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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