Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Dodgers HOU @ LAD

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

54-35  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Jul 6 • 4:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

56-34  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Bryan King
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan King

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan King None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 2
Tanner Scott None-None 3.76 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 Ldr ERA 3.76
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
48%
📊
DODGERS
52%
ASTROS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

74.9%

Dodgers Cover

25.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.9%

HOU By 3-4 runs

19.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

11.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6.96
HOUSTON
4.28
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.7
B
Sim Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 6, 2026 LAD @ HOU 12 - 2
May 5, 2026 LAD @ HOU 1 - 2
May 4, 2026 LAD @ HOU 8 - 3
Jul 6, 2025 HOU @ LAD 5 - 1
Jul 5, 2025 HOU @ LAD 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.582
OPS
▲ .762
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +38.3% more
Houston: 12.6 vs Los Angeles: 7.8
Total Bases (L5) +37.3% more
Houston: 21.9 vs Los Angeles: 13.7
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +64.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 7.0 5
LAD Score 4.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 12.6 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.8 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 8.4 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 21.9 8.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
HOU
LAD
HOU
ML
56% 92-73
50% 81-82
48% 79-87
47% 77-87
ATS
59% 98-67
56% 91-72
43% 72-94
55% 90-74
TTL
48% 77-82-6
45% 70-84-9
44% 70-90-6
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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