TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
44-45 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
47-41 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Latz
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Latz | None-None | 3.02 | -- | 3.0 | 1 |
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.02
ERA
Ldr 1.80
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
46%
PADRES
54%
RANGERS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TEX By 3-4 runs
14.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
17.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.21
TEXAS
San Diego
3.73
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
SD @ TEX
3 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
SD @ TEX
6 - 4
Jun 19, 2026
SD @ TEX
7 - 9
Jul 6, 2025
TEX @ SD
1 - 4
Jul 5, 2025
TEX @ SD
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.713
OPS
▲
.925
183
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+39.4% more
Texas: 1.3
vs
San Diego: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.3% more
Texas: 8.5
vs
San Diego: 6.1
Total Bases (L5)
+17.2% more
Texas: 14.8
vs
San Diego: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.2
1
SD Score
3.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.5 / 9.3
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.1 / 8.5
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 14.8
11.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.5
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
TEX
SD
TEX
ML
51%
85-83
53%
86-76
51%
85-82
57%
91-70
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
92-70
55%
92-75
61%
98-63
TTL
51%
82-80-6
53%
78-70-14
54%
86-74-6
55%
81-66-14
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