CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
46-42 | Road
1
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
51-37 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | None-None | 3.58 | -- | 6.0 | 8 |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.34 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.58
ERA
Ldr 2.34
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
44%
PHILLIES
56%
REDS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
33%
Under 0
67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.0%
PHI By 3-4 runs
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.98
CINCINNATI
Philadelphia
5.35
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
PHI @ CIN
1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026
PHI @ CIN
5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026
PHI @ CIN
4 - 1
May 20, 2026
CIN @ PHI
9 - 4
May 19, 2026
CIN @ PHI
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.699
OPS
▲
.724
213
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+84.9% more
Philadelphia: 4.4
vs
Cincinnati: 2.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+48.3% more
Philadelphia: 10.0
vs
Cincinnati: 6.7
Home Runs (L5)
+36.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.0
vs
Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+17.9% more
Philadelphia: 15.6
vs
Cincinnati: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.0
1
PHI Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.5 / 9.5
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.6
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 6.7
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 13.3
15.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.4 / 2.4
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CIN
PHI
CIN
ML
59%
97-67
55%
88-71
49%
80-84
49%
79-81
ATS
65%
107-57
54%
86-73
51%
83-81
50%
80-80
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
81-73-5
51%
78-76-9
54%
83-72-5
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