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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

44-45  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Jul 5 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

37-51  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Greg Weissert None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 --
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
57%
📊
NATIONALS
43%
RED SOX --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

62.7%

Nationals Cover

37.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.0%

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.59
BOSTON
4.29
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 WSH @ BOS 10 - 2
Jun 30, 2026 WSH @ BOS 8 - 1
Jun 29, 2026 WSH @ BOS 3 - 6
Jul 6, 2025 BOS @ WSH 6 - 4
Jul 5, 2025 BOS @ WSH 10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.409
OPS
▲ .744
2
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +46.2% more
Boston: 1.2 vs Washington: 0.6
Errors (L5) +42.0% more
Boston: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +32.2% more
Boston: 19.5 vs Washington: 13.2
Hits (L5) +19.6% more
Boston: 12.1 vs Washington: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.6 10
WSH Score 4.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 3.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.8 / 12.1 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 7.3 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 19.5 11.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.3 / 3.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BOS
WSH
BOS
ML
57% 92-69
50% 80-80
54% 87-74
47% 76-87
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-67
57% 91-70
48% 79-84
TTL
50% 77-78-6
46% 72-83-5
42% 65-90-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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