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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

48-40  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Jul 5 • 4:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

51-38  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Carlos Rodon
STARTING PITCHER

Carlos Rodon

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carlos Rodon None-None 3.30 -- 5.0 4
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.30 ERA --
-- WHIP --
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
4 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
47%
📊
METS
53%
YANKEES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 33%
Under 0 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

41.2%

Mets Cover

58.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.9%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.5%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.57
NEW YORK
4.46
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 NYM @ NYY 0 - 2
Sep 12, 2026 NYM @ NYY 12 - 2
Sep 11, 2026 NYM @ NYY 4 - 6
May 17, 2026 NYY @ NYM 6 - 7
May 16, 2026 NYY @ NYM 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
New York NYM
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
1.041 ▲
OPS
.705
2
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +10100.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs New York: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +26.6% more
New York: 8.3 vs New York: 6.5
Runs per Game (Season) +52.1% more
New York: 9.0 vs New York: 4.3
Home Runs (L5) +33.8% more
New York: 2.2 vs New York: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.6 6
NYM Score 4.5 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.8 / 9.9 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 2.2 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 6.5 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 18.7 22.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.8 / 4.0 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
NYY
NYM
NYY
ML
50% 79-80
47% 76-85
48% 76-83
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-66
59% 95-66
49% 78-81
53% 86-76
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 81-73-7
51% 74-72-13
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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