Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Diamondbacks KC @ ARI

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

42-47  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Jul 5 • 4:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

43-45  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kevin Ginkel
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Ginkel

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 2.59 -- 1.0 1
Kevin Ginkel None-None 9.47 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.59 Ldr ERA 9.47
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
48%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
52%
ROYALS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

68.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

31.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

18.2%

ARI By 1-2 runs

13.9%

ARI By 3-4 runs

8.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.43
KANSAS CITY
3.55
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
C
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 ARI @ KC 2 - 5
Sep 8, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 3
Sep 7, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 4
Jul 6, 2025 KC @ ARI 4 - 0
Jul 5, 2025 KC @ ARI 1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .720
170 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +36.9% more
Kansas City: 2.9 vs Arizona: 1.8
Hits (L5) +16.9% more
Kansas City: 9.0 vs Arizona: 7.5
Home Runs (L5) +68.9% more
Arizona: 1.8 vs Kansas City: 1.1
Errors (L5) +33.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 5.4 1
ARI Score 3.6 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.5 / 9.0 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 8.2 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 14.3 15.0 / 6.0
Walks 1.8 / 2.9 0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
KC
ARI
KC
ML
54% 87-74
55% 89-72
54% 86-74
56% 90-70
ATS
57% 91-70
57% 91-70
56% 89-71
58% 93-67
TTL
52% 80-73-8
58% 90-64-7
49% 73-77-9
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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