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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

53-35  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Jul 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

56-33  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Josh Hader
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Hader

#71 | Relief Pitcher
@
Justin Wrobleski
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Wrobleski

#70 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Josh Hader None-None 1.80 -- 1.1 2
Justin Wrobleski None-None 4.50 -- 4.2 6
None-None W-L None-None
1.80 Ldr ERA 4.50
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.2
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
47%
📊
DODGERS
53%
ASTROS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

73.4%

Dodgers Cover

26.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.1%

HOU By 3-4 runs

19.1%

LAD By 1-2 runs

12.1%

LAD By 3-4 runs

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6.92
HOUSTON
4.42
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
C
Sim Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 6, 2026 LAD @ HOU 12 - 2
May 5, 2026 LAD @ HOU 1 - 2
May 4, 2026 LAD @ HOU 8 - 3
Jul 6, 2025 HOU @ LAD 5 - 1
Jul 5, 2025 HOU @ LAD 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.582
OPS
▲ .762
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +50.3% more
Houston: 14.4 vs Los Angeles: 7.2
Total Bases (L5) +49.3% more
Houston: 24.9 vs Los Angeles: 12.6
Home Runs (L5) +30.7% more
Houston: 2.2 vs Los Angeles: 1.5
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 6.9 6
LAD Score 4.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.2 / 14.4 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 2.2 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 7.1 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 24.9 16.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.0 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
HOU
LAD
HOU
ML
56% 92-73
50% 81-82
48% 79-87
47% 77-87
ATS
59% 98-67
56% 91-72
43% 72-94
55% 90-74
TTL
48% 77-82-6
45% 70-84-9
44% 70-90-6
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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