Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Nationals BOS @ WSH

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

43-45  |  Road

11
FINAL
Fri, Jul 4 • 11:05 AM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

37-50  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Garrett Whitlock
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Whitlock

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Garrett Whitlock None-None 3.64 -- 1.0 1
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.64 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
56%
📊
NATIONALS
44%
RED SOX --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 78%
Under 0 22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Washington)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

41.4%

Nationals Cover

58.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

11.0%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.31
BOSTON
5.18
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 WSH @ BOS 10 - 2
Jun 30, 2026 WSH @ BOS 8 - 1
Jun 29, 2026 WSH @ BOS 3 - 6
Jul 6, 2025 BOS @ WSH 6 - 4
Jul 5, 2025 BOS @ WSH 10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.409
OPS
▲ .744
2
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +10400.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +407.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +33.5%
Washington: 74.4% vs Boston: 40.9%
Walks (L5) +27.7% more
Washington: 4.0 vs Boston: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.3 11
WSH Score 5.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.6 / 10.2 6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 6.9 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.3 / 18.2 7.0 / 22.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.1 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BOS
WSH
BOS
ML
57% 92-69
50% 80-80
54% 87-74
47% 76-87
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-67
57% 91-70
48% 79-84
TTL
50% 77-78-6
46% 72-83-5
42% 65-90-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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