CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
45-42 | Road
9
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
51-36 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.92 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Jesus Luzardo | None-None | 4.44 | -- | 2.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.92 Ldr
ERA
4.44
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
43%
PHILLIES
57%
REDS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.3%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
PHI By 3-4 runs
14.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.89
CINCINNATI
Philadelphia
5.32
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
PHI @ CIN
1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026
PHI @ CIN
5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026
PHI @ CIN
4 - 1
May 20, 2026
CIN @ PHI
9 - 4
May 19, 2026
CIN @ PHI
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.699
OPS
▲
.724
213
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+59.1% more
Philadelphia: 4.1
vs
Cincinnati: 2.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.7% more
Philadelphia: 9.0
vs
Cincinnati: 7.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
OPS (Season)
+2.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.9
9
PHI Score
5.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.6
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.7
14.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.1
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 13.4
20.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CIN
PHI
CIN
ML
59%
97-67
55%
88-71
49%
80-84
49%
79-81
ATS
65%
107-57
54%
86-73
51%
83-81
50%
80-80
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
81-73-5
51%
78-76-9
54%
83-72-5
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