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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

48-39  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Jul 4 • 3:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

50-38  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Hill None-None 2.54 -- 1.0 --
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.54 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
48%
📊
METS
52%
YANKEES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

39.9%

Mets Cover

60.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.44
NEW YORK
4.46
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 NYM @ NYY 0 - 2
Sep 12, 2026 NYM @ NYY 12 - 2
Sep 11, 2026 NYM @ NYY 4 - 6
May 17, 2026 NYY @ NYM 6 - 7
May 16, 2026 NYY @ NYM 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
New York NYM
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
1.041 ▲
OPS
.705
2
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +10100.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs New York: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +9.1% more
New York: 7.4 vs New York: 6.8
Runs per Game (Season) +52.1% more
New York: 9.0 vs New York: 4.3
Home Runs (L5) +46.6% more
New York: 1.3 vs New York: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.4 5
NYM Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 10.8 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 3.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 6.8 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 18.1 21.0 / 20.0
Walks 4.2 / 4.9 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
NYY
NYM
NYY
ML
50% 79-80
47% 76-85
48% 76-83
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-66
59% 95-66
49% 78-81
53% 86-76
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 81-73-7
51% 74-72-13
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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