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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

48-39  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jul 4 • 4:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

41-46  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Kelly

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Royce Lewis
STARTING PITCHER

Royce Lewis

#23 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Kelly None-None 3.32 -- 0.2 1
Royce Lewis None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.32 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
58%
📊
TWINS
42%
RAYS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

63.3%

Twins Cover

36.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.2%

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.4%

MIN By 3-4 runs

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.61
TAMPA BAY
4.25
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 MIN @ TB 2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026 MIN @ TB 1 - 6
Apr 24, 2026 MIN @ TB 2 - 6
Apr 5, 2026 TB @ MIN 4 - 1
Apr 4, 2026 TB @ MIN 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.728 ▲
OPS
.720
169
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +70.3% more
Tampa Bay: 2.3 vs Minnesota: 0.7
Errors (L5) +57.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.7 vs Minnesota: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +50.9% more
Tampa Bay: 17.4 vs Minnesota: 8.5
Strikeouts (L5) +45.5% more
Tampa Bay: 12.7 vs Minnesota: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 5.6 3
MIN Score 4.3 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.5 / 9.2 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 2.3 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 12.7 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 8.5 / 17.4 15.0 / 9.0
Walks 1.8 / 2.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TB
MIN
TB
ML
52% 84-78
58% 95-68
50% 80-81
58% 95-68
ATS
59% 95-67
60% 97-66
59% 95-66
55% 90-73
TTL
51% 78-75-9
47% 73-81-9
53% 80-72-9
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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