PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
38-50 | Road
0
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
45-42 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 2.29 | -- | 2.1 | 2 |
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 2.72 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.29 Ldr
ERA
2.72
--
WHIP
--
2.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
41%
MARINERS
59%
PIRATES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.7%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
18.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.89
PITTSBURGH
Seattle
5.94
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 25, 2026
SEA @ PIT
1 - 5
Jun 24, 2026
SEA @ PIT
1 - 11
Jun 23, 2026
SEA @ PIT
3 - 2
Jul 6, 2025
PIT @ SEA
0 - 1
Jul 5, 2025
PIT @ SEA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.734
▲
OPS
.693
186
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+88.0% more
Seattle: 1.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+51.5% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.7
Total Bases (L5)
+27.2% more
Seattle: 15.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.3% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.9
0
SEA Score
5.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 8.8
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.6
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 7.9
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 12.4
19.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.7
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
PIT
SEA
PIT
ML
50%
81-81
52%
82-77
52%
85-77
52%
85-78
ATS
60%
98-64
54%
86-73
59%
95-67
50%
81-82
TTL
56%
85-67-10
47%
72-81-6
53%
81-71-10
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
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