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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

41-47  |  Road

9
FINAL
Fri, Jul 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

43-44  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Thompson

#81 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 2.66 -- 1.0 --
Ryan Thompson None-None 4.45 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.66 Ldr ERA 4.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
47%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
53%
ROYALS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

60.7%

Diamondbacks Cover

39.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.5%

ARI By 1-2 runs

16.1%

ARI By 3-4 runs

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.82
KANSAS CITY
3.73
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 ARI @ KC 2 - 5
Sep 8, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 3
Sep 7, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 4
Jul 6, 2025 KC @ ARI 4 - 0
Jul 5, 2025 KC @ ARI 1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .720
170 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +209.0% more
Arizona: 2.2 vs Kansas City: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +76.8% more
Arizona: 14.9 vs Kansas City: 8.4
Walks (L5) +17.8% more
Arizona: 2.7 vs Kansas City: 2.3
Strikeouts (L5) +16.2% more
Arizona: 9.6 vs Kansas City: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.8 9
ARI Score 3.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 6.4 8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 0.1 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 8.3 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 8.4 11.0 / 26.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.3 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
KC
ARI
KC
ML
54% 87-74
55% 89-72
54% 86-74
56% 90-70
ATS
57% 91-70
57% 91-70
56% 89-71
58% 93-67
TTL
52% 80-73-8
58% 90-64-7
49% 73-77-9
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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