HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
52-34 | Road
6
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
19-67 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yainer Diaz
#21 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Mejia
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Juan Mejia | None-None | 4.30 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.30
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
84%
ROCKIES
16%
ASTROS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
76%
Under 0
24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
19.2%
COL By 1-2 runs
11.9%
COL By 3-4 runs
6.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5.73
HOUSTON
Colorado
3.17
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rockies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.6
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 16, 2026
COL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
COL @ HOU
1 - 3
Apr 14, 2026
COL @ HOU
6 - 7
Apr 8, 2026
HOU @ COL
1 - 9
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ COL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Colorado
COL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.582
OPS
▲
.739
4
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+41.4% more
Houston: 10.1
vs
Colorado: 5.9
Hits (L5)
+13.9% more
Houston: 10.9
vs
Colorado: 9.3
Home Runs (L5)
+10.4% more
Houston: 1.2
vs
Colorado: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+8.3% more
Houston: 15.2
vs
Colorado: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.7
6
COL Score
3.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 10.9
13.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 10.1
4.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 15.2
18.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.2 / 1.8
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
HOU
COL
HOU
ML
60%
97-64
50%
81-82
55%
88-73
47%
77-87
ATS
60%
97-64
56%
91-72
52%
83-78
55%
90-74
TTL
60%
93-62-6
45%
70-84-9
50%
77-78-6
45%
69-86-9
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